Friday, September 23, 2022
The 2022 midterm elections are now 46 days away and Republicans have a two-point lead in their bid to regain control of Congress.
Rasmussen Reports’ latest national telephone and online survey finds that if the congressional elections were held today, 44% of likely US voters would vote for the Republican nominee, while 42% would vote for the Democrat. Only five percent (5%) would vote for another candidate, but nine percent (9%) are unsure. (To see the wording of the survey questions, click here.)
The GOP lead is up one point from last week, when it led 43% to 42%. Republicans have led the generic Congressional poll all year, though their lead has narrowed significantly since mid-July, when they led by as much as 10 points.
Rasmussen Reports updates generic Congressional ballot results each week on Fridays at 10:30 a.m. EST until the midterm elections in November.
In September 2018, before voters gave Democrats their first House majority in eight years, Democrats held a three-point advantage (46% to 43%) in the generic polling question. Heading into the November 2018 midterm elections, the margin was a statistical stalemate — Republicans 46%, Democrats 45% — in the last poll before Democrats won a narrow majority in the House while Republicans won. seats in the Senate to keep control of that chamber.
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The survey of 2,500 likely US voters was conducted September 18-22, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% confidence level. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is performed by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Eighty-nine percent (89%) of Republican voters say they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate, while 85% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate. Among voters unaffiliated with either major party, 35% would vote Republican and 33% would vote Democrat, while 11% would vote for another candidate and 21% are undecided.
Forty-nine percent (49%) of white voters, 22% of black voters and 42% of other minorities would vote Republican if the election were held today. Fifty-nine percent (59%) of black voters, 39% of whites and 41% of other minorities would vote Democratic.
The so-called “gender gap” has narrowed slightly in the latest findings, with men (48%) now seven points more likely than female voters (41%) to favor Republican candidates for Congress. The gap was eight points last week.
Voters under 40 favor Democrats by a 10-point margin, 46% to 36%, but voters ages 40 to 64 favor Republicans 48% to 40%, and the GOP lead is eight points – 50% to 42% – among voters 65 and older.
Breaking down the electorate by income categories, Democrats do best among voters with annual incomes over $200,000, while Republicans have their greatest advantage — 48% to 38% — among those earning between $30,000 and $50,000 a year.
Government employees favor Democrats 41-40%, while private sector workers favor Republicans slightly. Among retirees, the GOP leads 49% to 42%.
With less than seven weeks to go until the midterm elections, more Republicans than Democrats say they are very excited about voting this fall.
Most voters think national security will be an important issue in November and are more likely to view the war in Ukraine as damaging to US interests.
Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown is available to Platinum members only.
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